Nelson, Turnbull or Costello?

by Sylvano Lucchetti

Peter Costello will lead the opposition into the next Federal election. A bold prediction, I know. But when you consider that the Liberal Party has known only too well and for some time that they need to dump Brendan Nelson - and yet he is still there - then you know something must be wrong; and it's that Malcolm Turnbull just ain't got what it takes.

It's certainly not like Rudd is in any trouble electorally.

Admittedly, today's Newspoll results suggest that fewer voters perceive Kevin Rudd to be "in touch with the voters." But note that 73% of respondents still agree that he is in touch with the voters (compared to 80% at the time of the election). Whereas Nelson achieved a score of, err, um... 44%.

In fact, the voter's judgement for each of Kevin Rudd's characteristics was at least as good - and substantially better for a few - than at the time of the last election. And the same holds true for Rudd's performance in each portfolio area covered by the survey.

So unfortunately for the current opposition Leader, Brendan Nelson, the results of the survey show that he just isn't a viable alternative Prime Minister. And let us remember that Kevin Rudd actually beat a man at the last election who had much better form than Nelson.

Though, I would seem to be at odds with Dennis Shanahan who sees a different portent in the pigeon gizzards, claiming in The Australian newspaper that "an increasing number of voters since the election [are] seeing him as out of touch and arrogant" despite the facts I present above.

What is true is that Rudd's polling has finally fallen from the dizzying peaks achieved during the end of February, which was a time when Brendan Nelson was as appealing as a fart in a lift.

Now, unless you can point me to another non-Costello contender in the ranks of the Federal Liberal Party to take the leadership from Nelson and Turnbull, then I'm afraid you have to accept that Peter Costello is the man.

And yes, I read Annabel Crabb's piece announcing that the Show's over, folks, let's move along, and asking, "Having failed to respond to Jarlsberg for more than a decade, why would Costello leap at a poo sandwich now?"

Why?

Because Peter has played the big game.

He has tasted the power. He has wielded the rod as number two, carried on the business of being Federal Treasurer, has a clean enough record to keep going and he is young. Unlike Downer or a Vaile - two men that are at least smart enough to know that the con is over - Costello has yet to satisfy the conditions of The Peter Principle.

There's only one gig that can surpass being Treasurer. No, not a job at Macquarie Bank, nor going overseas working hard for someone else, nor - God forbid - a posting to the United Nations.

No my friends... it's the Prime Ministership.

The Lodge.

Kirribilli house for the New Year's Eve fireworks.

It's all about being the guy who gets to sit in the biggest chair in this wide, brown land of ours and knowing you set the agenda.

Just ask Paul Keating.